September 29 2006 / PD Leader Must Choose Carefully
Why did Mary Harney resign as leader of the Progressive Democrats a couple of weeks ago, after fighting over the job just a couple of months earlier? I can't help but wonder that perhaps she knew something bad about Ahern was in the offing, and one of the reasons that she chose not to continue to be PD leader was that she did not want to deal with the all the fallout?
The leader of the Progressive Democrats has to consider a few options -
If the PD leader Michael McDowell were to insist Bertie resigns, that will result in either the PD's being told that is not an option, which might force them to walk out of Government. Fianna Fáil would then govern with the support of Independent deputies - Jackie Healy Rae, Mildred Fox, soon-to-be Fianna Fáil member Niall Blaney, and the few other Independent deputies that would be of the Fianna Fáil gene-pool. In this case, the Progressive Democrats would be out in the wilderness, and would possibly face political oblivion for trying to force the issue in the first place.
Alternatively, McDowell could insist that Ahern has to go, and this could be accepted, in which case there would be a new Taoiseach, most likely Brian Cowen. This throws up the unknown quantity of Michael McDowell working with someone on record as not being a fan of the PD's - remember when he said "If in doubt, leave them out"?
What if McDowell decides to support Bertie? Remember his lamp-post climbing antics in the final days of the 2002 Election? "Single party government? No thanks", was his mantra. How will the public react if the PD's, in the face of their coalition partner facing into their biggest crisis of this Government, support them, when in 2002 a fuss was made by McDowell about Fianna Fáil needing a watchdog?
If Mary Harney did get wind of something bad in the offing, she made a shrewd judgement in deciding it was not going to be something she wished to deal with as leader. Perhaps she thought that as Michael McDowell was so keen on being PD leader, he could deal with it himself? All idle speculation, of course, but I can't help but wonder.
September 26 2006 / Bertiegate - Could Ahern Call A Snap Election?
Bertie Ahern has now admitted to receiving "gifts" of €50,000 in the early 1990's. It remains now to be seen if the group of people named by Ahern and described by him as his personal friends, benefitted in any way as a result of giving Ahern money. What we do know is that Ahern did say that if any of them did benefit, it was out of friendship and not because they gifted him money. By saying this, Ahern is not denying that some of the might have benefitted, but that the motive behind their benefaction - if indeed, any of them have benefitted - is not what it might appear to be in light of these financial gifts.
Simon at Irish Election has done some initial work in assessing who these people are. One of them, it would seem, is Joe Burke, who has experience in controversy. A former Fianna Fáil councillor, he was appointed as chairman of the Dublin Port Company in 2002. Burke's appointment was among a number of postings to State bodies announced the day after the calling of the 2002 General Election, which led to allegations of cronyism from Fine Gael and Labour. Apparently, Mr Burke had requested a place on the board of Dublin Port from the Taoiseach and that the partners in Government, the Progressive Democrats had not been consulted in advance about his appointment. The then Tánaiste, Mary Harney, was only notified after the appointment was made.
As if that wasn't bad enough, it gets worse. Mr Burke became embroiled in the Sheedy controversy in 1999. This episode caused a huge scandal at the time when it emerged that, as the employer of the jailed architect Philip Sheedy, he visited him in prison at Shelton Abbey after his conviction and sentencing for dangerous driving causing the death of Mrs Anne Ryan. At the time, Mr Ahern told the Dáil that Mr Burke had made representations to him about securing Mr Sheedy’s early release. He described the former councillor as a “good personal friend… When I meet him we usually talk about sport, sometimes about building and politics”.
So, there it is.
Fianna Fáil have been slumping in the polls for most - if not all - of the year and I would imagine it's probably not going to get any better for them. If this Joe Burke is the same Joe Burke above, and the whole thing gets worse, Bertie might simply walk into the Dáil tomorrow, the first day of the final session of this, the 29th Dáil, and call a snap election - a sure fire way to kill this disgraceful scandal off, because for all political parties, the energy involved in running a General Election campaign, would be all-consuming.
It remains to be seen what will happen.
September 07 2006 / A Pretty PD Pickle
In a surprise announcement today, Mary Harney announced her decision to quit as leader of the Progressive Democrats.
Obviously, it is early days in terms of knowing who the new leader and Tánaiste will be, but the only real candidates would seem to be Michael McDowell and Liz O'Donnell.
Liz O'Donnell has not served in a government in a long time - since before the last election, and then only as a junior minister. She has less experience than McDowell. She is, however, Harney's chosen successor - they are very close. She is not close to Bertie Ahern however, given the spat last November in the aftermath of the Ferns Report dealing with the abuse of children by members of the Catholic clergy, where she passed remarks indicating her dislike of Government (meaning Bertie Ahern) being "close to All Hallows". This did not go down well with Ahern and it would be my opinion that any working relationship between the two would be strained.
As for Michael McDowell...well, we all know McDowell. If he does become the leader of the PD's and the Tánaiste as well, I'd think they were in for real trouble coming towards the General Election. Beyond the confines of a zealous right-wing minority of the middle classes, he is universally despised.
Non-intellectuals despise him for what he is - an intellectual and upper-class. A lot of intellectuals despise him for his populist pandering. He is despised by the pro-immigrant lobby for the citizenship referendum and his anti-immigrant line. Despised by Irish conservatives for being a social liberal, he is equally despised by social liberals for his repeatedly authoritarian laws and approach.
It is a very interesting time in Irish politics, the most interesting in at least 15 years. The General Election is shaping up to be a hell of a fight, but this change of leadership adds greatly to it. Sit tight, we're in for a great election campaign.
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